Here Comes the Sun: Understanding Keys to Solar Energy Success in Virginia

Abstract

 

This paper examines how project and community characteristics influence renewable energy project outcomes in Virginia – a politically competitive state that hosts the world’s highest concentration of data centers and is projected to experience significant energy demand over the next decade. The completion of new renewable energy projects and the increased supply of new clean energy production in Virginia is critical for energy affordability and climate stabilization. 

We find that project scale is the strongest predictor of completion likelihood, with smaller projects (<50 MW) achieving a 50.7% completion rate compared to just 18.8% for large installations (≥100 MW). Political context also matters. Projects in competitive counties (with a 40–60% Republican vote share) exhibit higher completion rates (34.8%) compared to those in politically homogeneous jurisdictions (32.4% in Republican counties and 30.0% in Democratic counties). Unexpectedly, higher county income is negatively associated with completion, suggesting wealthier communities may mobilize more vigorous opposition, while local tax exemptions wield little influence (33.3% vs. 33.6% completion). Hierarchical regression results indicate that variance in outcomes is primarily explained by project-specific factors (34%), followed by county characteristics (23%) and developer experience (18%), underscoring the multi-faceted nature of renewable energy development outcomes.

These findings show that distributed solar development through smaller projects in politically competitive areas may achieve higher completion rates compared to utility-scale approaches in politically homogeneous regions. These findings offer evidence-based insights for solar energy stakeholders as policy authority shifts from federal to state and local levels, informing developers about project sizing and site selection, guiding policymakers on community contexts that facilitate solar development, and helping communities understand factors associated with successful renewable energy transitions.